Models
Source: Visible Alpha consensus via S&P Xpressfeed · Consensus as of 2026-06-25 · generated 2026-07-19.
Model trust
With only one contributor this cannot be read as broad consensus, and the freshest line-item revision is November 2025 while the core P&L and KPI lines were last touched in August 2025, both stale against this July 2026 snapshot. Treat it as a single-analyst view rather than the market's.
Base currency: CNY · VA scales normalized from Abs, M; item currencies and units retained · Coverage depth and vintage; broker count is the maximum represented.
| Brokers | Line items | Last revision |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 329 | 2026-06-25 |
Caution: Coverage is thin at 1 broker.
Operating KPIs
The most decision-useful company-specific drivers with full forward coverage are GMV, total orders, average order value and the fulfillment-station count. Monthly-active-user coverage stops after FY-2026, so the user base is only partly modeled.
Base currency: CNY · VA scales normalized from Abs, M; item currencies and units retained · FY-1A / FY0E / FY+1E; broker count shown per KPI.
| Operating KPI | Source | FY-1A | FY0E | FY+1E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (Increase)/decrease in inventories | CD | -270,918.87bn Amount | -213,831.34bn Amount | -446.47bn Amount | 1 |
| (Increase)/decrease in receivables | CD | 17,074.74bn Amount | 16,302.88bn Amount | 13,242.04bn Amount | 1 |
| (Increase)/decrease in working capital | CD | -471,388.24bn Amount | 500,313.64bn Amount | -587,103.91bn Amount | 1 |
| Accounts payable | CD | 1,529,640.10bn Amount | 2,053,313.78bn Amount | 1,539,409.11bn Amount | 1 |
| Amounts due to related parties - Current | CD | 506,844.06bn Amount | 556,954.16bn Amount | 539,789.18bn Amount | 1 |
| Assets - Noncurrent | CD | 1,774,373.50bn Amount | 1,848,371.00bn Amount | 1,838,868.50bn Amount | 1 |
| Average order value - Non S5 - Product(CNY) | CD | 113.0 Amount | 113.0 Amount | 113.0 Amount | 1 |
| Average order value - S5 - Product(CNY) | CD | 70.00 Amount | 70.00 Amount | 70.00 Amount | 1 |
| Average order value(CNY) | CD | 69.30 Amount | 70.42 Amount | 70.53 Amount | 1 |
| Capital additions | CD | 106,076.01bn Amount | 112,730.50bn Amount | 120,744.41bn Amount | 1 |
| Cash and cash equivalents-Beginning balance | CD | 890,215.00bn Amount | 1,703,279.45bn Amount | 3,623,442.53bn Amount | 1 |
| Cash and cash equivalents-Ending balance | CD | 1,703,279.45bn Amount | 3,623,442.53bn Amount | 4,588,260.10bn Amount | 1 |
P&L bridge
Base currency: CNY · VA scales normalized from Abs, M; item currencies and units retained · Margins are derived against revenue; YoY compares adjacent fiscal columns; broker count shown per line.
| P&L line | FY-1A | FY0E | FY+1E | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 24,922,345.78bn Amount | 26,485,805.55bn Amount (6.3% YoY) | 28,368,656.55bn Amount (7.1% YoY) | 1 |
| Gross Profit | 7,286,895.82bn Amount (29.2% margin) | 7,736,090.82bn Amount (29.2% margin; 6.2% YoY) | 8,283,941.22bn Amount (29.2% margin; 7.1% YoY) | 1 |
| Ebitda | 1,251,570.71bn Amount (5.0% margin) | 1,437,277.93bn Amount (5.4% margin; 14.8% YoY) | 1,517,363.89bn Amount (5.3% margin; 5.6% YoY) | 1 |
| Operating Income | 352,982.34bn Amount (1.4% margin) | 482,318.19bn Amount (1.8% margin; 36.6% YoY) | 494,516.96bn Amount (1.7% margin; 2.5% YoY) | 1 |
| Net Income | 401,622.34bn Amount (1.6% margin) | 495,288.19bn Amount (1.9% margin; 23.3% YoY) | 567,486.96bn Amount (2.0% margin; 14.6% YoY) | 1 |
| Eps | 1.80 Amount | 2.22 Amount (23.3% YoY) | 2.54 Amount (14.6% YoY) | 1 |
Consensus dispersion
Every item carries a single contributor, so minimum, maximum and quartiles collapse onto the mean and standard deviation is zero. There is effectively no consensus dispersion to read here; the flat spreads reflect the absence of a second estimate, not genuine analyst agreement.
Base currency: CNY · VA scales normalized from Abs, M; item currencies and units retained · Top high-low spreads relative to absolute mean; requires at least 3 brokers.
| Line item | Period | Mean | Min | Q1 | Q3 | Max | Spread / mean | Brokers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No qualifying dispersion | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Quarterly path
Year-over-year revenue growth stays in the mid-single digits; resting on one August-2025 model, the pattern reads as seasonal rather than a genuine inflection.
Base currency: CNY · VA scales normalized from Abs, M; item currencies and units retained · Next four supplied quarters; final column is maximum broker coverage in the row.
| Quarter | (Increase)/decrease in inventories | (Increase)/decrease in receivables | (Increase)/decrease in working capital | Accounts payable | Amounts due to related parties - Current | Total revenue | EPS Diluted, Applicable to common stockholders(CNY) | Broker coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3QFY-2026 | — | — | — | — | — | 7,088,974.57bn Amount | 0.73 Amount | 1 |
| 4QFY-2026 | — | — | — | — | — | 6,973,876.85bn Amount | 0.72 Amount | 1 |
| 1QFY-2027 | — | — | — | — | — | 6,166,624.62bn Amount | 0.41 Amount | 1 |
| 2QFY-2027 | — | — | — | — | — | 7,049,012.58bn Amount | 0.67 Amount | 1 |
435 stale period values omitted; 8 line items fully removed.