Estimates
Source: S&P Capital IQ consensus via Xpressfeed · Generated 2026-07-19.
Street snapshot
Three analysts cover the stock and all are constructive — two Buy and one Outperform — for a consensus recommendation score of about 1.33. Their CNY target prices run from 20.69 to 24.19, with a mean of 22.73 and a median of 23.31.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst counts shown explicitly; recommendation respondents: 3.
| Street view | Reading | Analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Recommendation mix | Buy 2, Outperform 1, Hold 0, Underperform 0, Sell 0 | 3 |
| Consensus score | 1.33 | 3 |
| Target price | mean 22.73; high 24.19; low 20.69 | 3 |
Forward table
Gross margin is held near 29–30% throughout, and coverage thins in the outer years, down to a single estimate for FY2028.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Analyst count is the estimate count for each period and metric.
| Period | Metric | Mean | YoY | Analysts | Low / high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY0E | Revenue | 26,965 | 10.7% | 2 | 25,847 / 28,083 |
| FY0E | EBITDA | 389.0 | 26.4% | 1 | 389.0 / 389.0 |
| FY0E | EBIT | 390.0 | 68.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Net income (GAAP) | 395.0 | 76.2% | 2 | 370.0 / 420.0 |
| FY0E | Net income (normalized) | 492.5 | 39.3% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | EPS (GAAP) | 1.57 | 137.9% | 1 | 1.57 / 1.57 |
| FY0E | EPS (normalized) | 2.19 | 145.5% | 2 | 2.04 / 2.33 |
| FY0E | Gross margin | 29.5% | 1.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Capital expenditure | -40.00 | -19.2% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | ROE | 32.8% | -1.3% | — | — / — |
| FY0E | Cash from operations | 819.0 | 24.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Revenue | 29,038 | 7.7% | 2 | 27,280 / 30,796 |
| FY+1E | EBITDA | 459.0 | 18.0% | 1 | 459.0 / 459.0 |
| FY+1E | EBIT | 469.5 | 20.4% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Net income (GAAP) | 477.0 | 20.8% | 2 | 464.0 / 490.0 |
| FY+1E | Net income (normalized) | 582.5 | 18.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | EPS (GAAP) | 1.96 | 24.8% | 1 | 1.96 / 1.96 |
| FY+1E | EPS (normalized) | 2.58 | 17.8% | 2 | 2.48 / 2.67 |
| FY+1E | Gross margin | 29.4% | -0.3% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Capital expenditure | -46.00 | 15.0% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | Cash from operations | 856.0 | 4.5% | — | — / — |
| FY+1E | ROE | 27.7% | -15.5% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Revenue | 28,245 | -2.7% | 1 | 28,245 / 28,245 |
| FY+2E | EBIT | 566.0 | 20.6% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Net income (GAAP) | 513.0 | 7.5% | 1 | 513.0 / 513.0 |
| FY+2E | Net income (normalized) | 604.0 | 3.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | EPS (normalized) | 2.79 | 8.3% | 1 | 2.79 / 2.79 |
| FY+2E | Gross margin | 29.6% | 0.7% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Capital expenditure | -30.00 | -34.8% | — | — / — |
| FY+2E | Cash from operations | 737.0 | -13.9% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,902 | 15.5% | 1 | 6,902 / 6,902 |
| Q2 FY2026 | EBIT | 81.00 | 5.2% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 96.00 | -8.3% | 1 | 96.00 / 96.00 |
| Q2 FY2026 | Net income (normalized) | 123.0 | 2.5% | — | — / — |
| Q2 FY2026 | Gross margin | 29.2% | 0.7% | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Revenue | 7,721 | — | 1 | 7,721 / 7,721 |
| Q3 FY2026 | EBIT | 130.0 | — | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 140.0 | 74.3% | 1 | 140.0 / 140.0 |
| Q3 FY2026 | Net income (normalized) | 171.0 | — | — | — / — |
| Q3 FY2026 | Gross margin | 29.4% | — | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Revenue | 7,112 | 13.9% | 1 | 7,112 / 7,112 |
| Q4 FY2026 | EBIT | 71.00 | -1.4% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 87.00 | 180.7% | 1 | 87.00 / 87.00 |
| Q4 FY2026 | Net income (normalized) | 116.0 | 7.4% | — | — / — |
| Q4 FY2026 | Gross margin | 29.4% | 0.7% | — | — / — |
Estimate momentum
Forward consensus has been broadly stable. The moves are small and rest on thin outer-year coverage.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Point-in-time consensus; analyst count is shown where supplied.
| Period | Metric | Lookback | Then | Now | Direction / magnitude | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | Revenue | 30d | 29,038 | 29,038 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 90d | 29,763 | 29,038 | down 2.4% | — |
| 2027 | Revenue | 180d | 29,387 | 29,038 | down 1.2% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 2.58 | 2.58 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 2.57 | 2.58 | up 0.1% | — |
| 2027 | EPS (normalized) | 180d | 2.55 | 2.58 | up 0.9% | — |
| 2028 | Revenue | 30d | 28,245 | 28,245 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2028 | Revenue | 90d | 28,245 | 28,245 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 30d | 2.79 | 2.79 | flat 0.0% | — |
| 2028 | EPS (normalized) | 90d | 2.79 | 2.79 | flat 0.0% | — |
Beat / miss record
Normalized-EPS surprise history is thin: the only captured quarter (Q2 2024) shows an 817% beat, but off a near-zero 0.05 consensus that distorts the figure.
Current sequences by metric: Revenue: 2 consecutive misses; EPS (normalized): 1 consecutive beat.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Consensus is captured before each actual first became effective; analyst count shown per observation.
| Quarter | Metric | Consensus as of | Actual | Surprise | Outcome | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY2026 | Revenue | 6,348 | 5,893 | -7.2% | Miss | — |
| Q4 FY2025 | Revenue | 6,301 | 6,243 | -0.9% | Miss | — |
| Q2 FY2025 | Revenue | 5,971 | 5,976 | 0.1% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2025 | Revenue | 5,470 | 5,479 | 0.2% | Beat | — |
| Q4 FY2024 | Revenue | 5,892 | 5,905 | 0.2% | Beat | — |
| Q3 FY2024 | Revenue | 6,508 | 6,538 | 0.5% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY2024 | Revenue | 5,425 | 5,599 | 3.2% | Beat | — |
| Q2 FY2024 | EPS (normalized) | 0.05 | 0.46 | 817.2% | Beat | — |
| Q1 FY2024 | Revenue | 4,872 | 5,024 | 3.1% | Beat | — |
Where the street disagrees
Disagreement is widest on EBITDA and outer-year revenue. Near-term revenue, by contrast, is tightly clustered (stddev ~94m on a ~24,288m mean), so the small estimate counts limit how much to read into the wider spreads.
Currency: CNY · Scale: money in millions, absolute (per share) · Dispersion is high-low divided by absolute mean; analyst count shown per item.
| Period | Metric | Mean | Low | High | Spread / mean | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | EBITDA | 356.3 | 311.4 | 445.5 | 37.6% | 3 |
| 2026 | EPS (normalized) | 2.19 | 2.04 | 2.33 | 13.3% | 2 |
| 2026 | Net income (GAAP) | 395.0 | 370.0 | 420.0 | 12.7% | 2 |
| 2027 | Revenue | 29,038 | 27,280 | 30,796 | 12.1% | 2 |
| 2025 | Net income (GAAP) | 268.6 | 253.0 | 280.0 | 10.1% | 4 |